A couple of articles we published on the Malaysian elections:

The audacity of a vote, Today newspaper, March 15-16

An election in Malaysia, Economist.com, March 6

Rocket Man

After 10 gruelling days on the road in Malaysia, we were pleased as punch when we found some lovely kampung durians on sale at the highway stop at Pagoh, Johor, en route back home to Singapore. It's not even supposed to be durian season!!!!

An old Chinese man was standing just outside the perimeter of the rest stop, behind the Petronas station, with a basket of durians, yelling at us to go taste some.

While eating, we started chatting about life.

"Why are you selling durians behind the fence? Why don't you go sell inside the rest stop like the other fruit sellers?"
"You think it's so easy? The local authorities won't give me a license!"
"Why not?"
He pinched the leathery hide on his right forearm. "Warna kulit saya." (because of the colour of my skin).

Apparently all the licenses go to Malays.




"Are you and your motorbike here everyday?"
"Most days".

The divide is startling. Malay fruit sellers were sitting cosy inside the rest stop, while the Chinese durian uncle had to stand outside the perimeter, yelping at unsuspecting motorists.

"So, who did you vote for then?"
He gave us an incredulous stare, disappointed that we even had to ask.
"ZOOM!" He shouted, his left hand shooting up to the sky, his glazed eyes staring up to the heavens.
(the rocket is the symbol of the Democratic Action Party, one of the main opposition parties)

"Oh..well they lost in Johor this time"
"Yes," he snapped defiantly, "but they'll win soon, they'll win soon. The times are changing."

Well done, Straits Times

We travelled around Malaysia for ten days, traversing 10 states, chatting with fishermen, lawyers, prata men, female UMNO youth, kampung aunties, and political candidates. All sorts of people.

Our limited time notwithstanding, I think we returned to Singapore last Sunday with a fairly good feel for the pulse of the nation.

So I have been pleasantly surprised over the past few days, following the analysis of the election results in The Straits Times.

It's been spot on. From its big picture analysis to its little anecdotes to its grasp of the bread-and-butter issues that afflict poor Malaysians yet escaped the ruling party--all spot on.

So, well done Straits Times. Credit where it's due.

Having said that, I mentioned this to an old uncle who has seen much political action in Malaysia and Singapore, and he brushed it off, "Yes, sure, they write well about every other country. Just not Singapore."

Wake-up call

“I am voting DAP [an opposition party] for the parliamentary seat, and Barisan Nasional [the ruling coalition] for the state seat,” the Chinese taxi driver in Kuala Lumpur told us, “ We just want to scare them, keep them on their toes.”

Unlike Singaporeans, many Malaysians are politically active, but they are similar to their neighbours in that they are not always open about their affiliations. But now in the field, we’ve found a degree of candidness that has been surprising. Mention the word “Undi” (vote) and you’ll get a stream of comment, emotion and, often enough, invective.

Tommy Thomas, a lawyer in KL, said, “Whether you like the demonstrators or not, one positive outcome of all these protests we’ve seen, by Hindraf [Hindu Rights Action Force] and Bersih [a coalition of human rights groups pushing for electoral reform] is that the fear is gone. The fear is gone. Malaysians are willing to speak up, they will not tolerate any more nonsense.”

If our coffeeshop conversations are anything to go by, there certainly seems to be a groundswell of discontent amongst the minority Chinese and Indian communities here. Long-standing grievances about the country’s institutionalised affirmative action policies that give preference to the Muslim Malay majority—the so-called Bumiputeras (sons of the soil)—have been brought to the fore.

What’s more, many segments of Malaysian society appear dissatisfied with the ruling coalition after years of perceived corruption and mismanagement. There is a feeling that while the bumiputera policies have enriched government officials and cronies, ordinary Malays—in particular the lower-income group, main purported beneficiaries of the programme—have not enjoyed enough growth.

This is not to say that Malaysia has not grown economically. Indeed, GDP per capita, measured at purchasing-power parity, has zoomed from US$2225 in 1980 to US$13110, and has been growing at around 6% every year. Nevertheless, many Malaysians feel that the country has been performing well below potential. “If there was no corruption, no wastage, we would have been much richer. And much fairer—there would have been a lot more seeping down of the country’s riches,” Mr Thomas told us.

As if these grumblings were not enough, the ruling coalition has also been hit by a series of scandals over the past few months. For instance, there is an ongoing investigation into the death of a Mongolian model who was spectacularly blown up with C4 explosives in the Malaysian jungle, and her supposed links with deputy PM Najib Razak. Another ongoing investigation into alleged cronyism in judicial appointments has also rocked the Malaysian judiciary and the numerous businesspeople and government officials who are implicated. Early this year, the Malaysian health minister resigned after the release of steamy sex footage that revealed an extra-marital affair.

Just as the former health minister was thrust to fame on the internet, the increased penetration of technology has also added a new dimension to these elections, allowing the opposition to communicate with Malaysians, in spite of the government’s stranglehold on major media channels. For instance, news of upcoming ceramahs (public speeches) is disseminated via the Internet and SMS. There is some evidence that BN is using text messages to confuse those who want to attend opposition ceramahs. Other types of messages, like jokes or rumours, spread like wildfire over SMS.

Late last night, over drinks at the stately Royal Ipoh Club, a friend received an SMS informing him of a YouTube video showing ex-PM Mahathir’s admitting that he was wrong to imprison ex-deputy PM (and current opposition politician) Anwar Ibrahim. It is still unclear how genuine he was, and hence the implications of the “admission”, which may well have been just typical Mahatir sarcasm.

While BN has been beset by problems, the opposition parties are more united than they ever have been. A lot of that is due to the efforts of Mr Anwar, who has been furiously building bridges between unlikely bedfellows. The three main opposition parties are the DAP, the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR, the Justice Party) and the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), an Islamic party that had, until quite recently, pushed for the setting up of a Syariah Islamic state in Malaysia.

So, with all this unhappiness in the air, will Malaysians vote in a new government? Unlikely. While the recent protests may have increased political awareness among the Chinese and Indian voters, they have probably strengthened the resolve of many Malays to vote the BN in so the affirmative action policy can continue. As Mohd Zamin Kamaruzaman, an engineer in Ipoh, told us, “The Malays in this country will still vote for BN because it will best represent our interests. Of course, I would prefer a two-party system where we had a genuine choice. However, BN is the best we have now.”

The Chinese in the country—about 24% of the voters—have traditionally split their votes between the ruling coalition and the opposition, and are likely to do so again. “The Chinese care more about political and economic stability. They don’t worry about dignity, they don’t worry about pride,” explained Roland, a car dealer in Ipoh of mixed Chinese and Indian ethnicity. “They aren’t likely to shift to the opposition in a big way.”

The big change then will come in the Indian vote, in particular the 80% of Indians who are lower-income Tamils. Indians have traditionally supported the ruling coalition en masse. That is set to change. In many of their eyes, the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), the Indian party in the ruling BN coalition, and its leader, Samy Vellu, have let them down.

“We are fed up with them,” an Indian taxi driver in KL told us, “they promised us so many things but they have never delivered. We supported them for so long, but all they did was make themselves rich. They never fought for our rights. I am going to ‘vote rocket’ this time.” (the symbol of the DAP is a rocket). According to the Merdeka Centre, an NGO in Malaysia, Indian support for PM Abdullah Badawi dropped from 79% in October last year to just 38% by the middle of December.

However, Indians only make up about 8% of the electorate. How much difference might they make? According to Denison Jayasooriya, a political analyst who specialises in Indian affairs, Indian voters could make a difference in 62 of the 222 parliamentary seats being contested. Even if the opposition won all those, it could not deny BN its 2/3 majority in parliament, which it needs in order to make changes to the constitution.

In any case, the election result is not in doubt. The ruling coalition will win, and will likely maintain its 2/3 majority in parliament. In 2004, BN won 63.8% of the popular vote, and 90.4% of the seats (198 of 219) up for grabs. What will happen this time? Many we speak to think there is a real chance that BN might lose its 2/3 majority. We don't.

However, its share of the popular vote is set to fall, possibly to below 55%. As Natasha, a middle-income Malay entrepreneur in KL told me, “Not a single person I know is voting for BN. This election is meant to shock them. It is a wake-up call. Never again will things be so easy.”

OTBM Media Watch Day 9

Our Malaysian General Election watch continues. One interesting thing - spawned by government control of mass media, is the use of text messaging and the internet. Powerful as they are in providing a message, it is likely that they have a broad impact. Most youth that we have encountered cannot be bothered about the election.

March 4th

New Straits Times
BN – 17 (Positive=5,Negative=3, Neutral=9)
Opp – 14 (Positive=4,Negative=5, Neutral=5)
Both – 9
Total: 40

The Star
BN – 15 (Positive=7,Negative=0, Neutral=8)
Opp –6 (Positive=0,Negative=4, Neutral=2)
Both – 3
Total: 24

Sun Daily
BN – 2 (Positive=0,Negative=1, Neutral=1)
Opp –1 (Positive=0,Negative=1, Neutral=0)
Both – 0
Total: 3

Malaysia Kini
BN – 5 (Positive=0,Negative=2, Neutral=3)
Opp – 7 (Positive=2,Negative=1, Neutral=4)
Both – 0
Total: 12

Utusan Malaysia
BN – 12 (Positive=6,Negative=0, Neutral=6)
Opp – 8 (Positive=0, Negative=7, Neutral=1)
Both – 1
Total: 21

The Edge Daily
BN – 1 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=1)
Opp – 2 (Positive=2,Negative=0, Neutral=0)
Both – 1
Total: 4

Berita Harian
BN –9 (Positive=2,Negative=1, Neutral=6)
Opp – 9 (Positive=1,Negative=4, Neutral=4)
Both – 1
Total: 19

Breakdown By Parties

BN: 61 (49%)
Opp: 47 (38%)
Both: 15 (12%)

Who let the terrorist out?

The customs officials on the Johor Baru side must be smiling ear to ear. For the first time in years, they don't have to do a thorough check on the cars coming in. Why? Policemen on the Singapore side are doing their job for them, methodically searching every car, trying to catch the escaped terrorist Mas Selamat.

After "Toilet Break", as the Singapore satirical website Talkingcock.com termed the escape, we have heard many a joke about it. Talkingcock.com put up their own picture of the different possible disguises that the terrorist could have adorned, including one of him wearing a blonde wig.

But the escape of a hobbling prisoner has a "Usual Suspects" insidious feel to it. In that movie, the protagonist is an evil convict named Keyser Soze, who is a legend in the underworld. Kevin Spacey's character is actually Keyser, but he hides this by pretending to be an incompetent thief who walks with a limp, fooling all those around him.

The ease of the break (Mas Selamat said he had to use the toilet and climbed out the window) and the slim chance of ever escaping from detention (when is the last time you heard about anybody escaping from detention in Singapore?) has spawned several conspiracy theories:

1) One of the more popular ones is that the Singapore government negotiated a prisoner exchange with JI

2) Or that Singapore has passed Mas Selamat onto, say, the US, which is now happily torturing him in some place like Syria

3) Another is the theory that the prisoner is already dead, having been accidentally killed in interrogation…with the "escape" just planned so that they would have an excuse for the death.

4) A fourth is that the authorities let him get away just so that he would unwittingly lead them back to a bigger fish in the JI network

OTBM thought about all these for a while. Our opinion? Well, it is just impossible that there is any conspiracy involved. If there was some conspiracy involved, the government-owned media channels would never have carried any story. It would have been all hush-hush, and Mas Selamat Kastari would have passed quickly into the forgotten annals of time. The very fact that the story was splashed all over our media means he must really have escaped. Why?

1) First, the external credibility hit—our government lauds Singapore as a safe investment destination, and this just goes against that. Why would they fake a story now and damage foreign-investor confidence in the country?

What’s more, this might have the effect of emboldening terrorists who once thought Singapore's record on safety and police force infallible. If they can make such a simple mistake, would they be prone to others? Is Singapore's police force just resting on its image? Have they been tested recently?

2) Second, the internal credibility hit—the Singaporean public is upset about this, and already bloggers are making the link between our sky-high ministerial salaries and their inability to guarantee our internal security.

3) Third, Singapore would never deal with terrorists or any terrorist organization, throwing out the whole prisoner-exchange thesis. We didn't think that our police force would be sophisticated enough to do it even if they rationalised that the cost in terms of setting a dangerous precedent was worth paying.

And that is that really. Mas Selamat escaped due to a simple, silly mistake. It would be laughable had he been a parking offender, but he is a danger to the public, not only in Singapore but in Southeast Asia, so it is no laughing matter. The question is, who should pay the price? In many other countries, whoever was in charge would probably have been on the way out by now, but that is not the Singapore way.

OTBM Media Watch Day 9

March 3rd

It is quite obvious to us now, that we are missing out on a lot of papers, and that a publication's online presence is a good representation of its slant, but not neccessarily a good representation of its reach or impact. We were lucky enough to meet a brilliant editor who is going to move to The Malay Mail soon, and judging from what people were saying about him alone, it is still possible for one journalist to have a wide impact through his commentaries and analysis.

Booyah. However, the quote of the day definately came from a former plantation manager who is riding high on the wave of biofuels and oil palms. The quote: "Why do you want the cow when you can get the milk for free?" This was a comment that he made about marriage. Go figure.




New Straits Times
BN – 4 (Positive=2,Negative=0, Neutral=2)
Opp – 5 (Positive=0,Negative=3, Neutral=2)
Both – 1
Total: 10

The Star
BN – 21 (Positive=11,Negative=0, Neutral=10)
Opp –14 (Positive=1,Negative=6, Neutral=7)
Both – 7
Total: 42

Sun Daily
BN – 2 (Positive=1,Negative=0, Neutral=1)
Opp –1 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=1)
Both – 0
Total: 3

Malaysia Kini
BN – 7 (Positive=1,Negative=0, Neutral=6)
Opp – 7 (Positive=2,Negative=0, Neutral=6)
Both – 2
Total: 16


Utusan Malaysia
BN – 13 (Positive=5,Negative=0, Neutral=8)
Opp – 9 (Positive=0, Negative=4, Neutral=5)
Both – 0
Total: 22

The Edge Daily
BN – 5 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=5)
Opp – 0 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=0)
Both – 2
Total: 7

Berita Harian
BN –15 (Positive=6,Negative=0, Neutral=9)
Opp – 1 (Positive=0,Negative=1, Neutral=0)
Both – 4
Total: 20

Breakdown By Parties
BN: 67 (56%)
Opp: 37 (30%)
Both: 16 (13%)

OTBM Media Watch Day 8

March 2nd

New Straits Times
BN – 21 (Positive=6,Negative=2, Neutral=13)
Opp – 14 (Positive=3,Negative=3, Neutral=8)
Both – 7
Total: 42

The Star
BN – 14 (Positive=6,Negative=0, Neutral=8)
Opp –7 (Positive=1,Negative=1, Neutral=5)
Both – 2
Total: 23

Sun Daily
BN – 3 (Positive=1,Negative=0, Neutral=2)
Opp –2 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=2)
Both – 0
Total: 5

Malaysia Kini
BN – 8 (Positive=2,Negative=3, Neutral=3)
Opp – 2 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=2)
Both – 0
Total: 10

Utusan Malaysia
BN – 10 (Positive=4,Negative=1, Neutral=5)
Opp – 5 (Positive=2, Negative=2, Neutral=1)
Both – 0
Total: 15

The Edge Daily
BN – 0 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=0)
Opp – 0 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=0)
Both – 0
Total: 0

Berita Harian
BN –10 (Positive=6,Negative=1, Neutral=3)
Opp – 4 (Positive=1,Negative=0, Neutral=3)
Both – 1
Total: 15

Breakdown By Parties

BN: 66 (60%)
Opp: 34 (30%)
Both: 10 (9%)

OTBM Media Watch Day 6

Right, so now we are actually going around Malaysia collecting information and interviewing people. It might have been interesting to actually go through print version of the papers and compare the count to the online version, because from a rough perusal it seems widely different. In a perfect world, we would have a beer and the count would magically appear. Sigh.

March 1st

New Straits Times
BN – 13(Positive=3,Negative=1, Neutral=9)
Opp – 3 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=3)
Both – 5
Total: 21

The Star
BN – 18(Positive=10,Negative=0, Neutral=8)
Opp –3 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=3)
Both – 3
Total: 29

Sun Daily
BN – 2 (Positive=1,Negative=0, Neutral=1)
Opp –2 (Positive=2,Negative=0, Neutral=0)
Both – 1
Total: 5

Malaysia Kini
BN – 5 (Positive=2,Negative=2, Neutral=1)
Opp – 3 (Positive=1,Negative=2, Neutral=0)
Both – 3Total: 11

Utusan Malaysia
BN – 12 (Positive=4,Negative=0, Neutral=8)
Opp – 6 (Positive=1, Negative=3, Neutral=2)
Both – 3
Total: 21

The Edge Daily
BN – 0 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=0)
Opp – 0 (Positive=0,Negative=0, Neutral=0)
Both – 0
Total: 0

Berita Harian
BN –10 (Positive=3,Negative=1, Neutral=6)
Opp – 8 (Positive=1,Negative=2, Neutral=5)
Both – 1
Total: 19

Breakdown By Parties
BN: 60 (56%)
Opp: 29 (27%)
Both: 18 (17%)